Two Colorado polls on the Presidential election released today — Rasmussen Reports and Purple Poll — show the race for President to be exactly as the pundits predict, extremely close. Rasmussen has Romney and Obama tied at 45%, while the Purple Poll has Obama up two.
The Rasmussen poll was conducted on June 6 with 500 Likely Voters, with a margin of error of 4.5%. Sample was 32R/27D/41U.
The Purple Poll, conducted by the bipartisan public affairs firm Purple Strategies, was conducted May 31 – June 5 with 600 Likely Voters, with a 4% margin of error. No sample data was given.
With the race staying pretty much the same in the ballot test numbers, you have to look beneath to see the important trends identified.
A couple key findings:
- Rasmussen: 44% of respondents said their finances were getting worse, to only 25% who report improvement.
- Rasmussen: Fifty-two percent (52%) of Colorado voters say the choice between Obama and Romney is one they are excited about, while 39% say they’ll simply be voting for the lesser of two evils this election.
- Rasmussen: Obama holds a very slight 49% to 47% edge over Romney among voters who are excited about the choice of candidates. Romney leads 48% to 39% among those who will be voting for the lesser of two evils.
- Purple Poll: 57 Percent Of Colorado Voters Think The Country Is On The Wrong Track, While 37 Percent Think It Is On The Right Track.
- Purple Poll: Mitt Romney is closing the gap with President Obama across Purple States, as Republicans consolidate and independents lean toward Romney.
Colorado is likely to be one of the tightest finishes in the country, both polls find. No news there.
As analysts keep repeating, what is key to Colorado is swing, Unaffiliated voters. Those folks don't tend to get excited about candidates, which is why they swing back and forth, but instead vote for the lesser of two evils — which is why negative advertising works so well.
With that in mind, both Rasmussen and the Purple Poll have positive findings for Romney. Voters are seeing things get worse, not better, in the four years Obama has been in office.
As Rasmussen finds, Romney leads among voters who will decide among the lesser of two evils, 48% to 39%. As Rasmussen oversampled Unaffiliateds that would seem to be a striking finding.
With an economy of 40+ months of unemployment over 8%, and Colorado's unemployment rising last month, it seems a safe bet that at this point in the race, Obama is not in an enviable place.