An interesting division has been occurring in the Aurora mayor's race scheduled for November. It's not the usual split you see amongst the GOP — establishment vs. grassroots. This time it's more of a generational split, or the old guard vs. new guard in our view. When you compare Ryan Frazier's supporters against the others in the field this distinction is hard to miss.
There are a number of upstanding citizens running to succeed the long reign of the father-son mayoral dynasty of Paul and Ed Tauer. That does not include Defector Debbie.
It does include people like Jude Sandvall and Steve Hogan.
Hogan is a former Aurora city councilman, who ran for Congress as a Democrat twice in the early 80s, later switching to the Republican line, and served a total of 24 years on the council. Over the years he has built up a successful network of contacts on both sides of the aisle, allowing him the ability to raise a serious chunk of change. A couple of weeks ago, Hogan released his initial fundraising numbers reporting that he had raised $125,000 already.
He will be a serious challenger with top level operatives in Marcus Pachman and Sean Walsh. It's an interesting re-match against Frazier for Walsh, as he ran the campaign of Frazier's 7th CD primary opponent, Lang Sias, in 2010.
Hogan's rolodex has garnered him the backing of some serious old guard establishment figures like former Governor Bill Owens and former US Senator Hank Brown. He also has the support of the Tauer family, which has ruled over Aurora for nearly the last 20 years.
Jude Sandvall is a Realtor with some significant old school establishment support of his own (see his supporter list after the jump). Behind his campaign stand a bevy of backers who have dominated Colorado politics for a long time. From former state Senate Majority Leader and former State Treasurer Mark Hillman to the one and only Tom Tancredo, Sandvall has his fair share of dominant figures behind him.
Perhaps most important to his campaign is the backing of the Cottrells. Bo and Lynn Cottrell, Republican activists who have been doing the heavy lifting of the GOP since forever, are strong supporters of Sandvall. They are highly respected and their endorsement will no doubt carry a lot of weight. Sandvall is a great guy with solid conservative principles. Even those not supporting him say he would make a good mayor.
But good is not enough. Many new school Republicans and activist types want more than a "good" mayor. They are looking for dynamic, engaged leaders to represent them at all levels of government, including the mayor's office in Aurora. A quick perusal of supporters of Ryan Frazier's campaign from an upcoming fundraising event notice bears this new school vs old school paradigm out.
From newly elected Adams County Commissioner Erik Hansen, who has been busy cleaning up the wave of Dem corruption that has hit his county, to Brett Moore, who recently finished his tenure atop the Denver Metro Young Republicans, Frazier is garnering the support of the next generation of GOP leaders.
It is no surprise that we are fans of Fraziers, as we pointed out in our post about his entrance into the race. Some may say we are just shilling for our guy in the race. We're not. We haven't made any endorsement of Frazier's mayoral campaign. While we've spoken highly of Frazier, the generational and establishment lines that separate Frazier from Sandvall and Hogan are distinct and notable. It is an interesting split, regardless of who is in the race.
The supporter list of Frazier looks more like a who's who of those fighting the political battles in the here and now, whereas Sandvall and Hogan's endorsers read more like a list of political alumni. Many younger activists and GOPers see Frazier as a rising star with an ability to reach out to new constituencies and act as an able spokesman for the conservative philosophy. His numerous appearances on Fox News point to the fact that his messaging abilities are able to tap into a larger segment than your average Aurora mayoral candidate.
The fault lines can also be seen in the candidate's interactions on Facebook. Steve Hogan has a FB page, but it is barely ever used and has less than 100 "likes." Sandvall likewise has a FB page with less than 100 "likes," though he uses it more often than Hogan. Frazier, who was able to port over his nearly 2,500 "likes" FB page from his Congressional campaign, has a lively exchange going on with his supporters. In a low turnout, off-year election things like this can have an outsized effect. It's also an unmistakable sign to supporters that Frazier gets the new way campaigns are run. Social media matters.
Frazier clearly has a major leg up on his competition, having run for the 7th Congressional district last year. In addition to his FB page, he is able to take his lists of volunteers and donors, as well as the relationships he has built with activists and opinion makers, and bring them to bear in the race.
While Sandvall has sold himself as the Tea Party candidate, the real movement candidate appears to be Frazier, who brings with him a long list of supporters invested in putting young, dynamic conservative leaders into office. Just as with the fight between Sarah Anderson and the El Paso GOP, a newer and younger generation of conservatives are lining up against the old guard establishment. There are good people on both sides of each struggle, but the distinction between new guard and old guard is impossible to miss in both battles.
Jude Sandvall endorsers from a recent fundraising email forwarded to us by a source (not available on his website)
I’d love to see Barbara Yamrick’s take on things. It’s like she’s not even running for mayor
I happen to like Frazier a lot. I think he’s a dynamic personality, he’s a good leader, and he’s about 80% there on my issues. On the other hand, Jude Sandvall sounds like a great conservative as well, and he is endorsed by some of the Colorado Conservatives I admire the most. It’s a good thing I don’t live in Aurora; I would have a really difficult time deciding who to vote for.
Endorsements to me mean nothing, what they do means more. Ryan’s track record trumps any endorsement shown here (even though I like a some on the list).
It seems that when it comes to elections people complain about the negative attacks etc, but yet they show their ugly head again with the initial comment. I have met Ryan on several occasions and find him to be a great asset to the city of Aurora on council, and hope he can become elected to Mayor.
I think the importance of the pull Frazier has on the younger crowd is being underestimated. I do not know how many times I have heard regulars at Republican meetings complaining about how they cant attract the younger crowd and other non demographics that are not typically conservative, but some would slam for doing so…………
Although I appreciate the list of each candidates supporters I am disappointed that you are focusing on the window dressing and not the substance of the candidates values and plans once in office. Relegating Jude Sandvall to the ‘establishment’ bucket based on endorsements without talking about why said persons are endorsing him, lays bare your own bias in this race. You have chosen to hide your own identities for reasons that are unclear but still insert your own endorsement into the article.
When you argue for positions based on constitutional and liberty principles you carry some weight based on substance but you have lost me on this shallow analysis. Let’s see a careful examination of each candidates actual plan to govern and reform bloated, ineffective government. Todays voter wants more. What say you?
Yes, it’s important to analyze how someone would govern in office from a conservative/liberty perspective. But sometimes one candidate is more purely conservative while another is a conservative leader.
I’m of the opinion that as long as the conservative leader doesn’t stray too far from being a good conservative, I’d rather have the leader than the pure conservative.
What are your thoughts on that?
I want to know where and how the ‘good conservative leader’ is going to lead. Jude has laid out a very specific plan to reduce spending significantly while maintaining essential services. Municipalities must analyze the cost of taxation/spending to its citizens as part of the big economic picture impacting their lives.
I am not denigrating Ryan’s abilities nor leadership qualities but to date Jude has put forth a stronger plan to manage and lead in my view. In order to justify splitting the conservative vote Ryan needs a stronger plan.
puts it LIGHTLY! “Endorsements” come down to one thing and one thing only: who was hired to fund raise for the campaign. Frazier hired 20 year old kids, and HE also happen to be endorsed by the younger crowd. It isn’t some “great political strategy”, it’s more about who is friends with whom and where 20 year old kids spend their time: Facebook.
I know the Peak is young, but shallow analysis like this is gonna kill you quick.
Umm, do you even know the average age of a FB user? You sound like Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s pollster, who said Obama couldn’t win the primary because his rallies “looked like Facebook.”
The average age of FB users is 38. Nice try.
http://www.allfacebook.com/can…
I don’t know the average age of a facebook user? Who cares!?!
MY POINT was it only comes down to who you hire to fundraise for your campaign and the people THEY attract.
And excuse me for not being all that impressed with the ability of a former failed congressional candidate who is easily shoved around to have a few more “likes” on Facebook (since he has run for every conceivable race in the state…and failed)!
He must be the second coming of a conservative Obama!!! (without the wins)
Lets see how much YOUR argument matters when the average age of a person voting in an off-year municipal (free for all) election is probably 65…just saying.
but this is his second race is less than a year (technically 3rd). If he doesn’t win it’ll be hard for him to regain his footing. FB matters if his “fans” are actually Aurora voters or actually campaign for him. It’s better to have 25x more fans than not, but it’s pay-off depends on who it is.
Frankly wouldn’t one of these guys be wise enough to drop out simply so Colorado’s 3rd largest city isn’t represented by a Dem?
I’d be inclined to support Frazier, but I don’t know too much about him. Is he 100% conservative. The fact that Peak politics is
shilling forfans of Frazier gives me a slight moment of pause. I never took Peak politics for the Sarah Anderson type, but if it’s true that you guys have seen the light then I’m all in favor.Frazier as a dull bulb who lost his chances at a bright future when he got pushed out of the US Senate race for a PATHETIC congressional campaign in a republican year. But I am glad to see that the guys (ahem, establishment) who pushed him out of that race are now helping him raise money for a split GOP race in Aurora which will inevitably fall into the hands of a Dem because ego-maniacal people like Frazier need an office more than a real job or POLITICAL experience.
I’m certainly disappointed Frazier didn’t do too well with the Congressional campaign, too, but I’m willing to give him another chance. It’s a big jump from city council to Congress, and he might have just not been ready for that kind of campaign. Now I’m just hoping he’s been humbled enough that he’ll appreciate any office the public decides to give him.